fistulas

Latest hurricane forecast by Dr. Bill Gray (Per Dr. Masters of Wunderground)

The final 2006 seasonal forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season by the Colorado State University team led by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach was issued yesterday. The new forecast calls for two named storms in October, one of which is a hurricane, which is not expected to be intense. Gray's team forecasts no named storms for November, noting that November tropical cyclones are rare in the Atlantic during El Niño events. The average level of October activity is 1.6 named storms and 1.1 hurricanes. These averages decline by about 1/3 in El Niño years, to 1.3 named storms and 0.7 hurricanes. No intense (or major) hurricanes have been observed to form after 1 October in El Niño years since 1950. Dr Gray's team gives the following odds for landfalls along the U.S. coast in October 2006:

Named storm: 22%
Hurricane: 14%
Intense hurricane: 4%

The average probabilities of landfalling October tropical cyclones in the U.S. the past 52 years looked like this:
Named storm: 29%
Hurricane: 15%
Intense hurricane: 6%

The authors note that the failure of the El Niño prediction models to properly forecast the rapidly developing El Niño event this year was a major reason why their earlier hurricane forecasts were inaccurate. August-September 2006 sea surface temperatures in Equatorial Eastern Pacific warmed by approximately 0.6ºC from their June-July values, which is the greatest increase ever observed in a year that wasn't already seeing an El Niño event (the increase was 0.9ºC during strongest El Niño on record, in 1997; however, 1997 was already a strong El Niño event by the beginning of the summer).

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I'm going to go ahead and agree with the doctors. Hurricane season is over in my book. Me-1, Tropical Disturbances-0. Better luck next year. Now on to the second of my seasonal passions: Influenza Season. Trust me, it'll be just as riveting. Think about it--me, Kenny F-bones, with inch-long needles gauged around 25 or so injecting Fluozone intermuscularly near the deltoid for the first times for real, ever. Thrilling! I will not injure anyone. (I will not injure anyone.)

There are three birthday parties on Saturday. I say, "That's ridiculous." Then it's my Mom's birthday, then it's Phil's. Libras are dumb like this. It's like, SPREAD OUT. Jesus.

Tonight, I am watching House and America's Next Top Model simultaneously, probably while force-holding my cat. I am a woman of action.

I want you to leave me a comment if you read this post.